CEMROS forecast for 2025

Cement production and consumption in Russia increased in January 2025, but despite the positive results of the first month, industry experts remain cautious in their forecasts. Thus, manufacturers expect that the cement market in Russia by the end of 2025 may decrease by 5-25%.

The main growth factor at the beginning of the year was the abnormally warm winter, which allowed contractors to keep on working. However, fundamental facts indicate a difficult year: decline in housing construction, import growth and lower cement consumption for projects.

According to CEMROS estimates, external cement supplies in 2025 may grow by 10%, reaching 1.2-1.3 million tons. However, the market may not reach the record 1.8 million tons (2013-2014) due to logistical restrictions, including a shortage of rolling stock.

At the same time, the weakened ruble has made Russian cement competitive on foreign markets, which has already led to a double increase in exports in January. The main buyers are Kazakhstan and Belarus, where demand is growing at a faster pace.

CEMROS also mentions that the volume of housing commissioning has already decreased by almost 10%, while the trend to reduce the cement content of buildings continues to gain momentum. Architectural and technological trends are responsible for developers reducing the thickness of concrete structures in favor of insulating materials, steel and wood.

Additional pressure on the market is exerted by a triple increase in cement imports in January. If the trend continues, Russian producers may face even more serious challenges.
CEMROS experts expect stagnation in the construction industry to last about two years. A new wave of growth is possible in 2026-2027. In the meantime, 2025 will remain a challenging year for the cement industry, where the flexibility of manufacturers and a competent export strategy will play a crucial role.