The Russian construction sector between inertia and expectations: an analysis of the business climate and investment cycles in 2020–2026

Based on market surveys by the Central Bank of Russia, this study analyzes structural shifts in Russia’s construction sector between 2020 and 2026. A persistent divergence is observed between indicators of business activity in this sector, which accounts for 3.2 % of GDP (or over 20 %, with multiplier effects), and those in the manufacturing industry. While the gap between the two sectors peaked in 2023–2024 (+10 to +15 points in manufacturing versus +6 to +11 p. in construction), by mid-2026, the indicators turned negative; reflecting not a recovery in construction activity, but rather a fairly rapid slowdown in industrial growth. Expectations within the construction sector consistently outpace actual investment figures. An inversion of the traditional hierarchy of optimism has been identified: small and micro-enterprises are demonstrating more resilient performance compared to large players, whereas mediumsized companies have found themselves in the most vulnerable position. Potential drivers for the sector’s recovery in the medium term include the anticipated easing of monetary policy, the expansion of state infrastructure programs, and the com-pletion of the accumulated backlog of unfinished projects, contingent upon a restoration of business confidence.