The National Bank of Kazakhstan has updated its forecast for the country's economic growth to 3.6-3.9% in 2021 and 4.0-4.3% in 2022.
Main factors behind revision of the forecast were higher oil prices and the possibility of increasing budget spending in 2021. It is expected that a faster recovery of business activity in the economy, as well as growth in real incomes of the population, will contribute to the expansion of aggregate demand, which will become a driver of economic growth.
Export volumes are also expected to recover in the second half of 2021 due to the increase in oil production, as the OPEC + agreement eases corresponding restrictions.
Economic growth in 2022 will be driven by continued increases in domestic demand amid an improved epidemiological situation and increased exports.
Business activity and consumer demand in the country continues to recover. In January-April 2021, GDP growth amounted to 0.7% on an annualized basis, recovery is observed in trade (an increase of 5.7%), manufacturing (7.7%), construction (12.5%) and other industries.
Kazakhstan is also affected by positive changes in the global economy due to the improvement of the epidemiological situation and the ongoing vaccine rollout. This factor, combined with the rapid current economic growth in several large countries and regions, has led to a revision of the forecasts of international organizations regarding development of the world economy. Thus, the IMF raised its forecast for its growth for 2021 from 5.5 to 6%.
